South Korean football has always had to calculate various scenarios for advancing past the group stage at the World Cup. While it would be ideal to progress without such complexity, the national team often finds itself on the periphery against the world’s elite in the tournament.
With the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America expanding from 32 to 48 teams, the knockout stage will now begin with a round of 32 instead of the round of 16. For Hong Myung-bo’s squad aiming for South Korea’s first-ever away quarterfinal appearance, this means one extra hurdle to clear.
The rule that the top two teams from each group advance remains unchanged from previous tournaments. Additionally, the eight best third-placed teams among the 12 groups will join the round of 32. From South Korea’s perspective, the increased chance of advancing past the group stage is a positive development.
However, with the target of reaching the quarterfinals, the team must secure a relatively favorable path all the way to the round of 16. To achieve this, finishing first or second in the group is essential.
The best-case scenario for South Korea, competing in Group A against Mexico, Czech Republic, and South Africa, is to top the group. If they finish first, they would not need to travel outside Mexico until the round of 16. Their opponent would come from one of the third-placed teams in Groups C, E, F, H, or I, all of which play their matches in the United States. This means the opponent would have to undertake a long-distance journey to face South Korea in Mexico, while also adapting to the high altitude—a challenging combination.
A second-place finish is also acceptable. As the runner-up in Group A, South Korea would face the second-placed team from Group B in the round of 32. Group B consists of Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, and Switzerland, all of which are beatable opponents. If they advance to the round of 16, they would face the winner between the Group F winner and the Group C runner-up. Notably, Group F includes Japan alongside Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia. Should Japan top Group F, a Korea-Japan clash in the round of 16 could be on the cards.
The worst-case scenario is advancing as a third-placed team. A third-place finish in Group A would send South Korea to either Boston or Seattle—Boston on the northeastern tip of the US and Seattle on the northwestern edge—resulting in extreme travel distances. Moreover, their opponent would be the winner of Group E or Group G. Germany is heavily favored to top Group E, while Belgium is expected to seize Group G. In such a situation, even surviving the round of 32 would be daunting, let alone dreaming of the quarterfinals. Therefore, finishing at least second is a must.
